The 2024 NBA free agency period should be one of the most interesting we’ve had in years, as a mixture of future Hall of Famers and talented youngsters could all become available.
What will LeBron James and Paul George do with their player options? How will the Philadelphia 76ers use their max salary-cap space? Are Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby locks to stay with the teams that just traded for them? How will Klay Thompson’s benching in Golden State affect his future with the Warriors?
James Harden and the Clippers Will Face Some Rocky Negotiations
Harden’s last trip to free agency in 2023 didn’t exactly go as planned.
The veteran guard and the Philadelphia 76ers went through a nasty divorce, one in which president of basketball operations Daryl Morey promised Harden a max contract (according to Harden) but later went silent as free agency unfolded. Harden later picked up his $35.6 million player option, choosing to go into unrestricted free agency in 2024 instead.
For now, Harden has plenty of leverage.
The 2017-18 MVP is averaging 17.4 points, 5.1 rebounds, 8.3 assists and shooting 40.9 percent from three, while the Clippers have gone 34-18 since trading for him.
This doesn’t mean negotiations will be easy, of course.
Harden will be 35 by the start of next season and was “trying to get to a situation where I could get paid” by opting in and requesting a trade, per The Athletic’s Sam Amick. While the Clippers will absolutely want Harden back, giving him a max contract and paying Kawhi Leonard and Paul George will be extremely difficult.
The Harden-Clippers negotiations will be a fascinating part of free agency.
Chicago Bulls Run It Back…Again
Chicago’s biggest move in free agency last summer was re-signing center Nikola Vučević to a three-year, $60 million contract.
Running it back seems to be a theme for the 28-31 Bulls, a strategy that could continue this summer with DeMar DeRozan and Patrick Williams.
As The Athletic’s Sam Amick writes, “Meanwhile, DeMar DeRozan is still playing at a high level and will be an unrestricted free agent after this season. That’s typically a formula for a deal when a team is mired in mediocrity, but these Bulls will now look to keep the 34-year-old this summer. A league source with knowledge of DeRozan’s situation said he is happy there and would like to return—if the money is right.”
DeRozan staying in Chicago is reasonable given his lack of fits among teams with cap space. Outside of the Philadelphia 76ers or Orlando Magic making a push for the former All-Star, DeRozan’s best chance to get paid again could come from the Bulls.
Williams is a restricted free agent, and it’s tough to imagine any team throwing a big enough offer sheet that Chicago wouldn’t match. While we’re still waiting on a breakout season from the 22-year-old, the Bulls are likely banking on Williams simply being a late bloomer, a la Coby White.
Even though we were all expecting big changes after Chicago began the season 5-14, this Bulls roster could look quite similar next year as well.
OG Anunoby to Become Knicks’ Highest-Paid Player?
Even though OG Anunoby has yet to make an All-Star team like Jalen Brunson or Julius Randle, the 26-year-old could become the team’s highest paid player by next season.
As Jake Fischer of Yahoo Sports writes, “Anunoby is expected to decline his $19.9 million player option for 2024-25 to reach unrestricted free agency and told reporters further contract conversations would be left to his representation, CAA, which, with the agency’s deep ties throughout Madison Square Garden, has left plenty of expectation among NBA personnel that Anunoby will be finding some agreement far above the four-year, $118 million extension Anunoby was limited to signing but would not have accepted with the Raptors, league sources told Yahoo Sports.”
A contract valued at $118 million over four years averages out to be $29.5 million per season, or roughly the same as Randle will make next year ($30.3 million). With Fischer’s report of Anunoby getting something “far above” this figure, we can expect him to easily cross the $30 million per year threshold on a new deal.
While currently sidelined following elbow surgery, Anunoby was averaging 15.6 points, 1.8 steals and shooting 39.1 percent from three with the Knicks. Most importantly, New York is 12-2 overall with Anunoby in the lineup this season.
After giving up both Immanuel Quickley and RJ Barrett in the deal to acquire Anunoby, all signs are pointing at the Knicks re-signing the defensive star, even at a hefty price.
Orlando Magic Could Be Surprise Buyers of Free Agency
While the Philadelphia 76ers will be the most desirable team for veterans to join in free agency because of their cap space (and Joel Embiid), don’t sleep on the Orlando Magic.
Orlando is looking at around $50-$60 million in cap space and could turn some heads with a late-season run. The Magic are just one game behind the New York Knicks for fourth place in the Eastern Conference and guaranteed home-court advantage in the first round.
Both Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner are unselfish young stars who like to share the ball, and there’s enough talent in the backcourt to truly build something special over the next decade.
Stars should at least consider joining a team on the rise like Orlando, especially since Banchero has already established himself as an All-Star and only the Sixers, Detroit Pistons and Toronto Raptors are projected to have more money to spend this summer.
All signs are pointing to the Magic doing something big in free agency, especially before their young stars come off of rookie contracts.
Klay Thompson’s Cloudy Future with the Warriors
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It’s been a difficult season for Klay Thompson, whose personal struggles have led to a demotion out of the starting lineup for the first time since his rookie season.
Now an unrestricted free agent for the first time since 2019, could we really see Thompson sign with another team?
As The Athletic’s Sam Amick writes, “But it’s clear their relationship (Thompson and Warriors owner Joe Lacob) has suffered some strain along the way, with league sources indicating that Thompson has received no assurances from on high that his hopes of retiring happily in a Warriors jersey someday will be a shared priority this summer. Both sides, it seems clear, have no clarity about what might happen when that time rolls around.”
While Amick states that Thompson’s preferred option is to stay in Golden State, the 34-year-old “plans on listening to pitches from other teams.”
The Warriors better not low-ball Thompson on his next contract, or that and a benching could very well lead to the four-time champion signing with another franchise.
Detroit Pistons Spend Big on Role Players
The Pistons have spent their cap space in recent summers taking on contracts as a way of collecting extra second-round picks.
While the idea was noble, expect Detroit to go free-agent shopping this summer instead of looking for the next Joe Harris contract to absorb.
The problem with this strategy is actually getting impact free agents to come to a team that’s currently 9-49 overall and set the NBA record for most consecutive losses in a season.
The Pistons will spend their max-plus cap space, just not on any stars.
Bringing back Tobias Harris may be a best case scenario. Could Kyle Anderson get $15 million a year from the Pistons? Gordon Hayward for $20 million? How much would it take to pry Precious Achiuwa out of New York?
Detroit will definitely do something in free agency, although we’re skeptical on which free agents will actually agree to join a team that still looks years away from contending.
Most Stars End Up Staying Put
If the 2024 trade deadline was any preview of free agency, maybe we should just expect more of the biggest names to simply stay where they’re at.
Players like Dejounte Murray, Zach LaVine, Jerami Grant, Malcolm Brogdon and others all dodged trade rumors to remain in their current locations. Could we see the same from the top free agents?
LeBron James doesn’t seem interested in leaving the Los Angeles Lakers, with the same being said for Paul George as the Clippers enter a new arena. What reason would Jrue Holiday have for leaving the top-ranked Boston Celtics? Tyrese Maxey is a restricted free agent and couldn’t escape the Philadelphia 76ers even if he wanted to.
Getting excited about potential star movement is an annual summer tradition for basketball fans.
This offseason, however, doesn’t appear to contain as many fireworks…at least for now.
Pacers Feel Pressured to Give Pascal Siakam a $250 Million Max Deal
The Indiana Pacers wouldn’t have sent three first-round picks and Bruce Brown Jr. to the Toronto Raptors for Pascal Siakam if they weren’t planning on re-signing the 29-year-old forward.
There was likely an understanding of Siakam’s willingness to re-sign with the franchise and what that number may look like as well.
While he’s having another strong season (21.9 points, 6.6 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 53.4 percent shooting overall), is Siakam really worth a full max contract? It’s a fair question for a player who wasn’t even named an All-Star this season and has just two total nominations in his eight seasons.
A max for Siakam from the Pacers would fall just short of $250 million over five years. The Athletic’s Sam Amick reported before the trade that, “Siakam is seeking a full-term, max-salary deal no matter where he ultimately lands”.
A small-market team like Indiana probably has no choice but to pay Siakam whatever he wants, especially after giving up so much for him. Watching the two-time All-NBA team honoree leave in free agency would be devastating for a franchise trying to establish itself as a new power in the Eastern Conference.
Will this be an opening day no-brainer, or will some real negotiations need to take place first before a deal between Siakam and the Pacers ultimately gets done?
Everyone Will Use the Philadelphia 76ers and Their Cap Space for Leverage
Few NBA teams truly plan to have cap space anymore, a far cry from the 2010s when superstars still went into free agency.
Even rarer still is teams with legit title hopes possessing max cap space, something the 76ers will have this summer and more.
This could be bad news for other teams looking to re-sign their own stars.
While the Los Angeles Clippers may not be worried about losing Paul George to the Detroit Pistons, Philly could offer him big money and a bigger role. OG Anunoby could make the New York Knicks sweat a bit if he doesn’t get the contract he wants right away by using the Sixers as leverage as well.
Sixers president of basketball operations Daryl Morey is a known risk-taker and star-chaser, meaning opposing teams should take any report of his interest in their players very seriously.
Whether or not the 76ers actually sign a star (besides bringing Tyrese Maxey back), they’ll likely be in on a number of free-agent meetings and conversations.
LeBron James Will Push for One Last Max Contract
The idea of LeBron James leaving the Los Angeles Lakers to sign a smaller deal with whatever team drafts his son Bronny is a plan likely being put on hold for now, for a number of reasons.
The younger James simply doesn’t look NBA-ready yet, while the elder could be looking to cash in one last time.
As ESPN’s Brian Windhorst reported, “I don’t think this is the Lakers’ last stand. First off, I think LeBron is angling to sign a multiyear deal in the offseason with the Lakers that will be nine figures. That will be even bigger than the deal he is on now. Now, whether or not he’s able to finish that deal, whether or not the Lakers want to give him a three-year contract and pay him $60 million when he’s 42 years old, that’s a different discussion.”
James is the ultimate chess master, always thinking multiple moves ahead when it comes to on-court plays, off-court roster moves and planning for his own financial future. With Anthony Davis getting an extension last summer, James is likely looking for similar money (three years, $186 million), which would push his career earnings to over $665 million.
Will James sign a new deal with the Lakers? Pick up his $51.4 million player option? Test unrestricted free agency?
Even closing in on age 40, James continues to make waves as one of the biggest storylines of the offseason.