This is the Oct. 28, 2026, edition of “The Tea, Spilled by Morning Joe” newsletter. Subscribe here to get it provided directly to your inbox Monday through Friday.
“You can even pertain to Mar-a-Lago … The issue is that for $5,000, the most you’ll have the ability to purchase is a hamburger and perhaps a little dessert. I’m not even sure you might purchase that.”
— President Donald Trump joking at a political rally in Texas the other day that U.S. grownups might not pay for to consume at his Florida estate
One week. That’s all that stands in between James Talarico and among the greatest political upsets in modern-day Texas history.
As he barnstorms the Lone Star State in the last stretch, the political professional athlete is holding on to a narrow lead over Attorney General Ken PaxtonMS NOW’s information ballot partner FiftyPlusOne discovered Talarico at 49% to Paxton’s 46.2%, and a Fox News survey put him ahead, 51% to 49%. Those are little margins, however they point towards the possibility of an exceptional outcome. A Democrat hasn’t won a U.S. Senate race in Texas because 1988.
What makes Talarico’s position a lot more outstanding is what he’s up versus. Paxton has Donald Trump‘s maker behind him, together with Elon Musk‘s trillion-dollar checkbook. The world’s wealthiest guy has actually currently put practically $190 million into the contest, routed through a Senate GOP extremely PAC. That’s pressed combined advertisement costs past $500 million, putting the race on speed to be the most costly in Senate history.
Talarico hasn’t flinched. He’s called out the billionaire cash flooding the airwaves and hammered away at Trump, Musk, and the concerns that matter most to Texans. As I stated months earlier, the leading 3 problems in this project will be expenses, expenses, and expenses. Talarico leads Paxton on that essential problem and is squashing the impeached chief law officer with independents, 60% to 32%.
The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball both call Texas a toss-up. Dan Rather may state the race is “tight as a tick.” And Texas Republicans preserve a huge structural benefit. Talarico is turning the project’s last corner and heading into the homestretch with momentum, a winning message, and a lead.
With Election Day less than a week away, his project is kicking into overdrive. If the past is beginning in this race, anticipate Talarico to take it to the limitation one more time. And this time, it’s for the win.
CHARTS OF THE DAY
Source: Gallup survey of 1,200 U.S. grownups performed Oct. 1-19, 2026. Margin of mistake: ± 4 portion points
WHAT THEY SAID
Jonathan Lemire on Trump marketing
” Those who work for Donald Trump in his 2nd term hold true followers. The president’s been in a bubble, and his crowds, who keep chuckling at all his jokes, are much smaller sized than they utilized to be. It’s working for that little group of die-hard, devoted fans, however it is not playing outside those spaces– and it’s not going to assist Republicans next week. “
John Heilemann on DOJ vs. Alaska
“This is up until now over the intense line into authoritarian routine area. The Department of Justice is stating that if the Republican wins, they will not challenge this case. If any person else wins, the outcome is void and must not be accredited. That is really amazing, hazardous, and impressive, all rolled into one.”
Sam Stein on Mike Johnson’s commitment test
Mike Johnson is going to play a vital function in whether we have a serene transfer of congressional power. If Trump thinks that the elections are objected to and they should not be seated, will Mike Johnson acquiesce? I’m truly pleased there are layers of defense here, however likewise puzzled that it’s even got to this point.”
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