Nextbigfuture Kalshi Question Review #2

Every day I review 2–3 Kalshi energy, science and tech markets where I think the outcome is clearer than the odds suggest. I’ve forecast on Metaculus and Manifold since 2019: 6,596 predictions, a best-ever #8 of 34,617 Baseline Accuracy rank on Metaculus, and a Brier score of 0.071 vs the Metaculus site’s 0.080 (Oct 2023).

Paid partnership with Kalshi. Get a $50 sign-up bonus with my referral link: https://kalshi.com/r/nextbigfuture (or use code NextBigFuture)

I’ve made 2,000+ predictions on Metaculus and ranked as high as #8 of 34,000 for baseline accuracy. In this second Kalshi review I go through three markets: who becomes the second trillionaire, who will be the top 3 wealthiest people at the end of 2026, and whether China overtakes the US economy by 2030. Before that, I cover the SpaceX Q3 2026 earnings call and the Minihard data-center math: about $13B to build, about $26.7B a year per GB300 Minihard, and roughly 3× that with Rubin.

Paid partnership with Kalshi. Get a $50 sign-up bonus with my referral link: https://kalshi.com/r/nextbigfuture (or use code NextBigFuture). Deposit $25 to get the $50 bonus.
If you signed up in the last couple of days and the code didn’t work, email me at [email protected] and I’ll help you get the bonus through Kalshi.

Today’s markets:
• Who will be the world’s second trillionaire?
• Who will be the three wealthiest people in the world at the end of this year?
• Will China overtake the US economy by 2030?

Chapters
0:00 Intro: Kalshi and the $50 sign-up bonus
1:28 My forecasting track record
2:08 SpaceX Q3 call: the Minihard math
3:29 Rubin Minihard build-out in 2027 (NextBigFuture model)
6:02 Market 1: Who will be the world’s second trillionaire?
8:19 Market 2: Top 3 wealthiest people at year-end
9:27 Market 3: Will China overtake the US economy by 2030?
11:33 Wrap-up

More analysis: https://nextbigfuture.substack.com
Membership on Substack will give access for private sessions to discuss investments and predictions.

Daily news: https://www.nextbigfuture.com
X: https://x.com/nextbigfuture
Follow us on Patreon. nextbigfuture

DISCLOSURE
Some links in this post are affiliate or referral links for Kalshi. If you click one and sign up or trade, I (or Z1 Consulting) may earn a commission or referral credit at no extra cost to you. This is a paid relationship, and I only recommend products or platforms I believe may be of interest. Trading event contracts on Kalshi involves substantial risk of loss, is not appropriate for everyone, and is regulated by the CFTC. Availability may be limited by location. This is not financial, investment, or trading advice—do your own research and consider your circumstances before trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DISCLAIMER
This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. Trading event contracts on Kalshi involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. You could lose some or all of the money you deposit. Past performance or market activity is not indicative of future results.

Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated Designated Contract Market. Availability, products, fees, and rules are subject to change and may vary by jurisdiction. Event contracts are not securities, and trading them does not confer ownership in any underlying asset or entity. Eligibility requirements apply (including age and location restrictions).

Any opinions expressed are personal and may not reflect Kalshi’s official views. Always review Kalshi’s official terms, fee schedule, risk disclosures, and rules before trading, and consider consulting a qualified professional. Do your own research.

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