Who is to blame for Blue Jays ace Dylan Cease’s breakdown?

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The question facing the Blue Jays regarding ace starter Dylan Cease is not whether he should be shut down for the remainder of the season, but rather why wasn’t he given a breather when his right shoulder first started going wonky weeks ago?

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During a season in which the reigning World Series finalists’ starting rotation was decimated by injury from the outset, the new guy was the shining light.

He was a workhorse.

He flirted with no-hitters.

He bulled his way into the midst of the Cy Young Award race, briefly emerging as the favourite, depending on your stance regarding the Yankees’ Cam Schlittler.

And then, when his team needed him the most, he was toast. The shoulder fatigue that likely has ended his season — at least it should — has apparently been lingering for coming up on two months.

The competitor that Cease is persevered. He was grinding, sure, but the more his velocity dipped, the more one had to wonder if something physical was off.

You wanted to see him pitch because the competitor in him was elite and it gave the team, essentially reduced to a three-man starting unit, its best shot. And then it didn’t.

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Then came his last start, once critical to the Jays flimsy playoff hopes and one in which Cease had nothing left. The likely season-ender saw the 30-year-old lasting just 2.2 innings and needed 74 pitches to do so.

The alarms were now blaring as Cease wasn’t able to pitch into the sixth inning for the third consecutive start, all while velocity was skidding and worry, both from pitcher and team, accelerated.

Finally, Cease was sent to Toronto where an MRI revealed what was suspected and something was off. With it, the Jays slimmest of playoff hopes as good as disappeared.

When did it go awry for Cease?

The right-hander was candid and transparent this week, telling reporters in Baltimore that trouble first emerged in that brilliant July 25 start in Boston, where Cease pitched a complete-game shutout in the Jays 6-0 win over the Red Sox.

He was as strong as he ever was, but to be able to achieve that rarity of a complete game, Cease threw a season- and career-high 120 pitches to get there.

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It was the tail end of a gruelling stretch for Cease, who threw 118 pitches on July 7 as he took that captivating no-hit bid in San Francisco into the ninth inning. That was followed by his deserved start in the MLB all-star game (albeit for an inning of work), a 101-pitch outing against Tampa Bay and what is now revealed the fateful game against Boston.

In all, Cease made it to a triple-digit pitch count in 16 of his 29 starts this season, living up to that durability trait that so attracted the Jays to make him the centrepiece of their rotation

In fairness to all, this is what the Jays expected when they made Cease the richest free-agent buy in franchise history on that seven-year, $210-million US deal.

“Durability,” Jays GM Ross Atkins said when asked what attracted the team to Cease at his introductory press conference last December in Orlando. “One is it speaks to athleticism and doing things in a way that is efficient and makes sense for their body to repeat.

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“Then the second factor is that it speaks to the potential to get better. This has always been attractive to us (with any player), but it’s been exceptionally attractive about Dylan. He by no means needs to get better, but because of that athleticism and durability, the potential is there for him to continue on an incredible trajectory.”

Who is to blame?

It’s never clear the degree of truth that emerges regarding Jays injury situations — and lord knows there have been enough of them this season — with vague projections punctuated by wishful thinking.

Was it on the Jays for not giving Cease a break when the trouble first emerged? Doing so would have basically finished off a rotation already decimated by injury. And, in fairness, despite the workload and Cease’s proven sturdiness, it’s not as if the Jays don’t monitor the health of their players.

Was it on Cease for not speaking up when discomfort became a performance-limiting deterrent? In hindsight, sure, but athletes play and pitch through things all the time.

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Among his many redeeming qualities, Cease had the mindset of an ace: Determined to will his team towards a win every time he was on the mound.

He surely thought he could pitch through the annoyance, but as it worsened and the velocity slipped, so did his command. It got to the point where in his final starts he was becoming, in his own words, a liability.

What’s next for Cease?

The immediate reaction to Cease’s diagnosis was to scratch him from Wednesday’s scheduled start, likely ending 2026 for him.

There was also relief: Nothing structural, so no surgery — yay!

There is still concern, however. Shoulders are shoulders, after all, and once there is trouble, more can follow. You can bet the Jays will be hyper-diligent about monitoring that critical part of the pitching machine. Off-season rest will no doubt lead to adjusted usage going forward.

That, of course, brings us to the looming annoyance of a potential (probable?) work stoppage in 2027. Cease was nothing short of brilliant for the Jays in his first season here, often dominant and a tantalizing centre piece for a rotation going forward.

Losing a year — or part of a year — of that talent and that investment would be another blow.

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